Rohan Week 9: The Incumbent Advantage in 2024

This November, our nation will take part in the first “normal” presidential election in eight years. In 2020’s election, mail-in voting, mask mandates, and social distancing dominated. It also took place in the midst of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic.

While this year’s election may feel a little more “normal,” at least in terms of voting procedure and the lack of a deadly pandemic, it is quite different from many recent elections that we have had in our nation.

Why?

Yesterday, the Iowa caucuses took place. As expected, Former President Trump walloped the competition. Two of his rivals for the GOP nomination even dropped out. Why is it that someone got a historically large share of the vote in the first primary in the nation?

That is because Former President Trump has the fame and status of an incumbent, even if he really isn’t one. In 2020, as the incumbent, he lost the presidential election to Joe Biden. This was a break from a long-withstanding pattern of an incumbent almost always winning the presidential election for a second term.

In America, political incumbents are extremely powerful, especially incumbents of an office as demanding and influential as that of the President. Between 1996 and 2012, the Presidential incumbent comfortably won their election for a second term.

In most cases, many incumbents have what is referred to as the Incumbent Advantage because they gain notoriety and coverage during their time in office. People recognize them. Powerful donors trust them and likely have forged personal connections with them. Colleagues in power are more likely to endorse them. In general, in American Politics, it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent.

So, why will the election in 2024 be different? President Biden is the incumbent and Mr. Trump is the challenger. According to all trends and tradition, the election is comfortably in President Biden’s hands, right? Wrong.

Today morning, I had the opportunity to read this article about Mr. Trump’s ability to maintain his status even when out of the presidency. Even though he was “often conspicuously outworked by his competitors” in Iowa, his ability to dominate to spotlight in media has done wonders for maintaining his popularity. And for all intents and purposes, he will be the Republican nominee for the presidency this fall.

Even if the setting and stakes of this election seems a little closer to normal, the dynamic of an incumbent running against someone who is not an incumbent but has all the benefits of being one is very far from normal.



                            Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are emerging from a crowded field of candidates (source)





Comments

  1. Ayush ChaurasiaJanuary 20, 2024 at 9:37 PM

    Hi Rohan! You took a very engaging approach to explain how surprising it is that ex-president Donald Trump has a strong chance at winning against the incumbent president Joe Biden—I appreciated how you organized this blog post into a multitude of short paragraphs because it made your explanation of a complex political phenomenon much easier to understand. As your blog post explores the existence of the “incumbent advantage,” it also raises important questions about the impact of such an advantage. After all, there may have been multiple presidents from 1996 to 2012 who won re-election even though they were not the most ideal candidates for the presidency. On a different topic, the concluding ideas of this blog post reinforce the idea that the current political landscape is full of uncertainty; you bring up that the dynamic of the new presidential election is far from normal, and that the 2024 election will not be an easy win for either candidate, which is something that I agree with. Regardless, this blog post is excellent in its avoidance of political biases while still exploring a controversial topic.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Peter ShrJanuary 22, 2024 at 5:12 PM

    Hi Rohan! Your discussion of the Incumbent Advantage is eye-opening and effective at incorporating the context of American politics into account. It highlights the uniqueness of the upcoming presidential election, with Trump fighting for another term. You mentioned that incumbents gain notoriety for their achievements and actions, and that is why I think Trump lost against Joe Biden in 2020. It seemed like a reactionary election to the way Trump handled COVID-19. However, Biden himself has become notorious in recent years for the way he conducts himself, and the media has increasingly polarized the general opinions of these two figures. I appreciate how your blog addresses a common belief that the election is easily in favor of Biden. A significant cause for this belief is because of Trump’s role in the January 6 attacks. In addition, with growing progressive movements in support of the left, the media sensationalizes statements from celebrities and politicians including Trump that could be racist, homophobic, xenophobic, etc. However, you also contextualize previous trends to highlight the complexity of the situation. Despite the animosity against Trump in various social media, that does not fully represent the opinions of the American population. Your blog adds another aspect to consider regarding the election, emphasizing its significance in recent American politics.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Sampan MehtaJanuary 24, 2024 at 7:14 PM

    Hi Rohan,
    Your blog is very informative and very relevant to the current events that have been taking place. The Presidential elections have always fascinated me, and this year I did my best to keep up with the news, polls, and even some debates I watched online as elections are coming up. Until I read your blog, I was completely unaware of what an incumbent advantage was. After reading your blog, I realized now how President Biden was able to break the pattern of the incumbent winning the second presidential term by defeating former President Trump. I was quite shocked that Trump was the leading candidate in the Republican party, especially after his absences at the republican presidential debates from early this year and late last year. I definitely agree with your statement that even though the voting process will be somewhat normalized this year, this election will be far from normal. Though it is not confirmed yet, it seems as if the election will be another battle between former President Trump and President Biden, the former incumbent against the current incumbent. It will definitely be an interesting election, and I am looking forward to the results of the election later this year. Adding on, I definitely understand your point of how Trump has the advantage in his party because he was the former president, and of course Biden also holds that advantage with being the current sitting president.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Siddarth KamathJanuary 24, 2024 at 7:53 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Siddarth KamathJanuary 24, 2024 at 8:08 PM

    Hello Rohan! First of all, from a structural point of view, your writing style fits in with the short paragraphs. It seemed that every short paragraph had a purpose even though it was around 2 sentences long. Another benefit of these paragraphs is that it allows you to shift from topic to topic easily which also makes it easier to involve rhetorical questions such as the "Why?" in paragraph 3. The picture at the end of the article also stood out. The image of the blue side (democratic) and the red side (republican) with the faces of all the primary candidates running with a source gives a visual that can go along with the blog you have written. The blog itself was quite interesting. You began with a familiar topic: the election and the upcoming predictions on the presidential vote. From there, the transition from the presidential election to the incumbent advantage was smooth. The incumbent advantage was the person in office having a more likely chance of winning the vote for the second term than the "challenger" as you put it with the analogy between Biden and Trump. I liked the way that you were able to bring a contrast to the topic of the incumbent advantage as the introduction of a new election and its new facets at the beginning of the blog knitted well with the challenger this time having an advantage over the incumbent based on the article you cited. Ultimately, the blog was neatly written and had a great flow with a vast amount of information presented. Great work!

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Andrelina Hsu Week 9 - Beyond Muscles

Image
Beyond Muscles      When it comes to sports, power is often associated with physical strength. However, muscles and agility are not the only requirements for a successful athletic career. Power extends beyond sheer physical capabilities, as it includes resilience, determination, and the capability to push through hard times. Take snowboarding as an example; balance, coordination, and muscular endurance are some of the most basic demands required to be good at this sport. Yet, hidden within the heart and mind of a successful snowboarder is the unspoken attribute of perseverance.      Marcus Kleveland , a 24-year-old snowboarder who is arguably one of the best in the world as of today, suffered a detrimental injury during the early stages of his career. As a rookie, Kleveland came into people’s sights during the 2017 Winter X Games in Aspen, when he landed the first ever quad cork in competition history. However, at a practice the following year, Kleveland sustained a major injury to h
Read more

Allison Mao Week 9: What Made Martin Luther King, Jr A Powerful Speaker

Image
Being a persuasive speaker may not always seem as important as being extremely intelligent or physically strong. Nevertheless, many people in history have proven that a silver tongue can do much to persuade, or even manipulate, the people around them.  With the holiday honoring his memory being yesterday, it makes sense to mention Martin Luther King, Jr; his “I Have A Dream” speech is remembered for being excellently persuasive to his cause. I wondered what qualities of his speeches, aside from simply looking at the important topics he covers, make them so memorable.  According to an article by Scott Elbin, six qualities make Martin Luther King, Jr a great speaker. One, he utilizes careful control of his cadence during his speeches, starting many of his speeches with a slow pace before beginning to speak more quickly. This helps draw in the audience’s attention and increase their sense of urgency. Two, King makes good use of context, often mentioning stories from the Old Testament and
Read more

Sampan Mehta Week 13: Haunting Memories of Flight MH370 Ten Years Later

Image
On March 8, 2014 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was scheduled for an overnight departure from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. The flight took off shortly after midnight, and just shortly after takeoff as the flight reached the end of Malaysian airspace, the pilot said: “Good Night. Malaysia Three Seven Zero.” This was the last spoken communication received from the aircraft and soon after, the plane mysteriously vanished from radar over the South China Sea. What was thought to be a few days of searching for the final location later turned into one of the largest, most expensive searches in human history with thousands of miles of ocean searched with the support of many different countries around the world. Ten years later, on March 8, 2024, there has yet to be any conclusive proof of what really happened on March 8, 2014, and the haunting memory remains.   Onboard flight MH370 were 227 passengers and 12 Malaysian crew members. The flight had passengers from around t
Read more